Shared scenarios

Settings people have submitted, with their reasons. Open any of them in the model.

Anyone can submit a scenario from the share section of the model page: the settings, a short title, and a few words on why those values. We read each submission and add it here if the person said we could. The numbers below are recomputed from the settings each time this page loads, so they always match the current model. Monte Carlo results (switch 2) aren’t shown here; open the scenario to see them.

We’d most like scenarios from people who have thought hard about one input: the long-run level of risk, how long an intervention’s effect lasts, how value might grow, or whether a given kind of work could backfire.

M = import(new URL("./xrisk-model.mjs", window.location.href).href)
entries = fetch(new URL("./scenarios.json", window.location.href).href).then(r => r.ok ? r.json() : []).catch(() => [])
card = e => {
  // Rebuild the link from parsed settings, so a submitted query can only ever point at the model page.
  const s = M.settingsFromQuery(e.query || "");
  const q = M.settingsToQuery(s);
  let line = "";
  try {
    const sc = M.computeScenario(M.paramsFromSettings(s));
    const share = M.horizonShares(sc.diffCum, [500])[0].shareBeyond;
    line = `E(M) = ${M.fmtSci(sc.EM, 3)} years of today's world${Number.isFinite(share) && share >= 0 && share <= 1 ? `; ${(100 * share).toFixed(1)}% of it after year 500` : ""}.`;
  } catch (err) { line = "Couldn't compute this scenario with the current model."; }
  const who = e.source === "example" ? "Example from The Unjournal" : [e.name, e.affiliation].filter(Boolean).join(", ") || "Submitted anonymously";
  return html`<div class="scenario-card">
    <h4>${e.title}</h4>
    <div class="meta">${who}${e.date ? `, ${e.date}` : ""}</div>
    <p style="white-space:pre-line;margin:0.4rem 0;">${e.rationale}</p>
    <p style="margin:0.2rem 0;font-size:0.92rem;"><strong>Settings:</strong> ${M.describeSettings(s).text}.</p>
    <p style="margin:0.2rem 0;font-size:0.92rem;"><strong>Result:</strong> ${line}</p>
    <p style="margin:0.3rem 0 0;"><a href=${"index.html" + (q ? "?" + q : "")}>Open this scenario in the model</a></p>
  </div>`;
}

Submitted

{
  const subs = entries.filter(e => e.source !== "example").sort((a, b) => String(b.date).localeCompare(String(a.date)));
  return subs.length ? html`${subs.map(card)}` : html`<p>None yet. <a href="index.html#share">Submit the first one</a>.</p>`;
}

Examples

These show the format, and a few scenarios we discuss elsewhere on the site.

html`${entries.filter(e => e.source === "example").map(card)}`